5 diciest qb situations

I thought I would start my blog by generating a list of the 5 most tenuous qb situations in the nfl.

1) Minnesota - Travaris Jackson? I have a theory about picking franchise qb's in the draft. Many people say that first round qb's have a high failure rate. While this may be true, I can't remember the last time I saw a "franchise qb" picked outside of the first round pan out as a top flight qb. What I'm referring to is a quarterback that a team picks in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th round etc. with the intention of turning them into their starting qb in the near future. Recent years' examples include Kellen Clements, John Beck, and Kevin Kolb. While the jury's still out on them, one only needs look at similar situations in recent years. Charlie Frye was chosen in the fourth round, but the Browns were shocked when he played like a......fourth.....rounder. Some examples that have not panned out include Chris Redman, Chris Simms, Josh McCown, Patrick Ramsey (actually, the last pick in the first round), Quincy Carter, Chris Weinke, Giovanni Carmazzi....the list goes on.
I'm not trying to say that qb's after the first round never pan out, b/c we know that's not true (Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme, Matt Hasselbeck). I'm saying that trying to guess which quarterback after the first round is going to lead you to the promise land is a risky proposition. Let's face it, the Pats backed into Brady. Delhomme and Hasselbeck were fliers taken by their original teams - the Saints and the Packers - each of whom had an entrenched starting qb. Drew Brees is a bit of an exception but a) he was the first pick of the 2nd round and b) he was enough of a failure in his first two years that the team, right or wrong, could not pass on Phillip Rivers when they had a chance. Teams are better off taking later round fliers without the expectation that any specific one will be the franchise qb (a la Tom Brady).
My opinion is that Jackson falls into the category of the 2nd round qb who is expected to be the savior. Never works and I think he will fail. Brooks Bollinger isn't much better and, should they trade for him, Kelly Holcomb could work out to be the best of a sad bunch.

2) Cleveland - Charlie Frye falls into the category described above - later round qb expected to be a franchise qb. And, as I described above, he has failed. All indications are that he's, at best, even with Derek Anderson in the competition for the starting job. Anderson, by the way, falls under the category of later round flier.
Brady Quinn fell in the draft for a reason. Maybe he's the next Tom Brady or Joe Montana, but, until he does something, he's no more than a late first round qb. I don't have statistics on the success of late first round qb's, but I don't think it's great. And it definitely does not bode well for 2007.

3) Oakland - I actually don't think Oakland is in awful shape long-term. They have the top pick (although unsigned) in the 2007 draft in JaMarcus Russell. They took a gamble with some very solid upside on Culpepper. And they have Andrew Walter as their number 3. Best case scenario. Culpepper comes in and plays well for this season - he has a chip on his shoulder and a one year contract. Russell learns under Culpepper and steps in as the starter next year. Walter proves he's not as bad as he looked last year (my personal opinion - that line was hideous).

So why is Oakland on this list? Because of the worst case scenario for 2007. (Long term I think they're ok). Russell is a rookie and rookie qb's (outside of Dan M) never do anything good. Culpepper has not looked good since his knee injury. And, Walter may not be any better than he looked last year.

4) Kansas City - Brodie Croyle. Franchise QB picked in the 2nd round. Enough said. And Damon Huard is a lifetime back-up who looked ok last year. My guess is that KC will have a couple of dismal years and be in the running for a QB as a top 3 pick.


5) Miami - Trent Green got his bell rung last year and did not look the same when he came back. John Beck is a second rounder who, even if my theory about non-first round franchise qb's is incorrect, is at least 2 years away. Cleo Lemon hasn't proven anything at this level. Miami is another team that will be in the market for a qb very soon.



Almost made the list:
Detroit - Can you count on Kitna/Orlovski to lead this team?
Jacksonville - I like Leftwich, but if he doesn't pan out this year, they'll be on the market.
Houston - I may the only person that thinks they moved sideways in the Schaub trade.