How good is Randy Moss?

I've always been a big fan of Randy Moss - going all the way back to watching the highlights of him sprinting through D1-AA defenses with those green and white striped Marshall socks. Then I started thinking about all of the facts about Randy Moss and how good he has been throughout his career - except for that brief stint in Oakland.
(Sidebar - doesn't it almost seem like the stint in Oakland should be able to be edited out of his resume? I mean, if you can find a way to put Animal House on TBS, there has to be a way to not allow that period onto his profile. It's almost like he was blackout drunk at a frat party......he just wasn't himself.)

Here are some facts to chew on:

• Moss has 124 TDs in 10 years. That's more than halfway to Jerry Rice's record of 197. Moss probably won't play 20 years (and to be fair, Rice had 131 after 10 years. But....we're talking about Jerry Rice here)
• Moss has 12,193 yards. Hall of Famer Michael Irvin had 11,904 in his 12 year career. Oh...and Irvin had 65 TDs......just over half of Moss's total.
• Most WRs blossom in their 3rd year and look completely lost as rookies. In his rookie season, Moss had 1,300 yards and 17 TDs. Rice had 900 yards and 3 TDs. Irvin 650/5; Harrison 800/8; Chad Johnson 300/1.
  
• The only rookie who came close in recent years was, believe it or not, Terry Glenn with 1100 yards and 6 TDs.
• In 1999, after getting absolutely torched by Moss in 1998 (his rookie year) the Green Bay Packers selected defensive backs in the 1st 3 rounds and another in the 7th. Think about that, they went into the 1999 draft with the specific intention of finding a way to stop Randy Moss - who was a rookie the year before!!!!!

Probably the most impressive piece of his resume is how much better he made each of his quarterbacks. In hindsight, Brady's incredible season seemed almost inevitable when you combined one of the best QBs of all time with Moss' obscene talents. Here's a comparison of each of Moss' QBs throughout his career and their average stats with him and without him.
(Sidebar - I omitted the Raider years. It's my blog and, if The Sopranos can be on A & E, than I can edit the stats for my blog.)


Let's go in chronological order starting with Randall Cunningham.
(Sidebar - by the way, can anyone have lucked into a better situation than Randall did in 1998. He was out of the league in 1996 and the MIN backup in 1997. Then in 1998 Brad Johnson gets hurt and Randall comes in and, 10 times per game, he closes his eyes and throws the ball about a mile in the air - to nobody in particular - and Moss would casually sprint to where the ball was going, jump higher than anyone else, and Cunningham gets an All Pro year out of it. At the age of 35 and 6 years removed from his prime. I hope he bought Moss a nice Xmas gift that year.)

Randall Cunningham (1 season)
Average year:
w/out Moss
3,200 yards - 22 TDs
w/Moss
3,700 yards - 34 TDs (13th best single season total)

Jeff George (1 season)
Average year:
w/out Moss
220 yards per game - 17 TDs
w/Moss
282 yards per game - 23 TDs (and he only started 10 games - over 16 games this would project to 37 which would have been the 9th best ever)


Daunte Culpepper (4 full seasons)
Average year:
TOTAL w/out Moss
3,800 yards - 20 INTs, 13 TDs (again, that's his TOTALS for the 3 years since he played with Moss)
w/Moss
3,700 yards per season - 26 TDs (including 39 in 2004 - 6th best of all-time, 33 in 200 - 15th best)

And, of course,
Tom Brady (1 season)
Average year:
Average w/out Moss
3,600 yards - 25 TDs (obviously, Brady was already one of the best QBs ever before Moss came along. But, his career high in TDs was 28 - which he did in 2004 and 2002. That's the 55th best total of all time)
w/Moss
4,900 yards - 50 TDs (The 50 TDs is, obviously, a new record. The 4,896 passing yards is second only to Dan Marino's 5,084 in 1984. Brady's previous high was 4,110 - goo for 47th)


Again, Brady was an outstanding player before Moss and you can't attribute all of the jump in his numbers to Moss......but he sure helped.

Of the 4 qbs, only Jeff George did not break his career high in TD passes when he played with Moss. And that's because he only started 10 games - projected out over 16 games he would have crushed his career high.

Cunningham broke his career high by 4. Brady by 22 (22!!!). Culpepper had 26 more tds in 2004 than he has since he left Moss.

This may all be a coincidence - or maybe Moss is just so freaking good that everyone around him benefits (unless you're wearing black and gold)

Why are people picking the Giants?

OK....so I'm not saying the Giants can't win, because they certainly can. There have certainly been bigger upsets. Villanova over Georgetown. US over USSR. App State over Michigan. Boise State over Oklahoma. Zora Andrich coming from out of nowhere in Joe Millionaire. Heck, these (sort of) same Pats pulled a pretty big upset against the Rams in 2001.

There are many, many, many more examples of teams that have had much worse match-ups than the Giants and still pulled the game out. In fact, I would say they have an ok chance of winning.
(Side note, to New England fans these days, that last sentence is the equivalent of my saying that the Pats suck; Brady sucks; the defense sucks; Harrison took HGH.....uhhh...scratch that; and Brady is ugly and dresses bad and has bad grammar....but I digress.)

The thing that gets me is that there's really no logical reason to pick the Giants to win. From a purely empirical/statistical standpoint, I don't think that anyone would argue with the statement that if the Pats and Giants played 10 times, the Pats would (conservatively) win 7. That being the case, then, you can't logically pick the Giants.....it's a mathematical thing. If someone gave you a jar with 70 red marbles and 30 white marbles and told you that they would give you $1000 if you predict the color marble they will randomly pull out.....you'd be kind of silly to say white. Well, the same applies here. You may choose white and be right, but it doesn't mean you were smart to do so. If a roulette wheel had twice as many black spaces as white with the same pay-out, you would lose your shirt pretty quickly betting on white.
(Sidebar - this is kind of in-line with the theory that you should fly on an airline that just had a plane crash because the recent crash affects the odds of an imminent crash.....uh uh. The odds are reset. Sorry. You may still die. But, on the other side of the token, if your fear is flying, the odds of dying on a 10 mile drive to the airport are several times higher than dying on the flight. That's why I always hire one of those bicycle rickshaws to take me to the airport.....much safer)




There are a couple of reasons that someone would pick the Giants:

1) They are a writer who was told by their employer....say, CNNSI.....that they needed to "handicap" the game. Being a writer (let's call him Dr. Y) who wants to write something interesting, while still incorporating some wisdom, he finds 10 or 12 reasons why the Giants MAY win the game (the aforementioned 30% chance) and writes about it. The 10 or 12 reasons may be valid, but, they may also ignore other factors. Dr. Z, I mean Y, doesn't really care if he's right (and he doesn't hate New England - as I'm sure many NE fans have already put pen to paper to accuse him of), he just wants to write an interesting, informational article that doesn't stick to the status quo. I love Dr. Z and he may be serious, but I think he picked the Giants because you don't become a successful sports writer by always picking the favorites.

2) You actually enjoy telling a large group of people that the underdog is going to win. You do it all the time.......7 out of 10 times you're wrong. But, what can people say. You picked the underdog and they're supposed to lose. You just go about your business until you can get into the next sports discussion and inform people of why the underdog will win. Statistical probability (on which this blog is based) says that, at some point, this person will be correct and they will SING TO THE HEAVENS. Not that I know anyone like that.

3) You have inside knowledge that Tom Brady has contracted malaria from Giselle - which she, of course, got while doing a Maxim cover shoot in Namibia entitled "Really Expensive Lingerie and How it Will Help Eradicate Abject Poverty?" And even then, I'm not so sure the Pats would lose. Unless Giselle has some other friends on the Pats......why did I just go there?

4) You really, really, really know football and you have some type of knowledge that a certain match-up or weakness can really affect the outcome of the game.
(Two sidebars about this one. 1. The comment I made above about Dr. Z may fall into this category since he is an unquestioned - or should be - authority of the game. 2. In New England, this is not viewed as an acceptable excuse because picking against or saying anything negative about the Pats shows that you don't know what you're talking about.)

Honestly, if Ron Jaworski gets on TV and show me the x's and o's and concludes that the Giants are going to win the game, I will honestly believe he is onto something. Because (gasp) he knows more about football than I or most of us - even if what he says does not appeal to you. He's not paid to handicap games - just break them down.





And hey, I've picked underdogs before - but usually b/c I actually believe the underdog is better than they're given credit for or I thought there was a match-up that did not favor the favorite.

A few examples:
When I was in 7th grade, I bet half of my class that Spinks would beat Tyson. I was 12 and I had watched Spinks beat Larry Holmes. I thought I had the inside track since everyone else was just picking the favorite. I was a paperboy at the time and I still remember running to the stack of Sunday papers in my garage and seeing the headline that Spinks went down in 91 seconds.
I never paid up.

The one time this year (besides the Colts) that I thought the Pats might lose was when they played the Bills. It had all the ingredients for the upset. Division rival. Second best team in the division. At Buffalo. But I forgot the one simple thing that really should drive any selection. Probability. If the Pats and Buffalo play 10 times in Buffalo, the Pats win at least 6-8. That means that if you're picking against the Pats your picking against math and logic and why would you do that? In my defense, I thought they MIGHT beat the Pats. I didn't sing it to the world or bet on it. By the way, the score was 56-10.....I think.

And, mind you, I'm not talking about games where there are odds involved. If you honestly believe the Giants win 3 out of 10 games and you're getting 7:1 odds, then, by all means. The benefit outweighs the risk.

So....that's my blog for the day. I am perfectly aware that
1. nobody is reading this,
2. any prediction/comment I made in the September blogs I posted were so far off that if anyone did read them they puked in their mouths. Mostly, I stuck with the facts and analysis. But I did say that: the Browns had a horrible QB situation and should pick up Leftwich; Del Rio was in over his head and should not have released Leftwich....I'll have to look back to see the other horrible observations I made.

And, before I sign off, what I'm saying here about why you can't reasonably pick the Giants is not based on opinion. It's simple probability and statistics. If you flip a coin, you have a 50:50 chance of picking correctly. I guess it's an opinion that the Pats would win at least 7 out of 10 against the Giants.....but, I don't know, I think it's a reasonable estimate.

One more thing. I don't begrudge anyone picking the Giants, I just think it doesn't follow logic - unless someone honestly believes the Giants are better. This is not meant to be an opinions......I'm just pointing out that it doesn't make mathematical sense. Also, articles talking about HOW the Giants could win make perfect sense to me.

Analyzing 1st round picks since 2000

Interesting Notes About First Round Colleges: (Source=Wikipedia)

• Miami has the most 1st round picks since 2000 with an ungodly 25. After Miami is Ohio State and Florida State (each with 13), Texas (12), Wisconsin, Tennessee, Penn State, Oklahoma, USC and Georgia (all with 8).
• Texas has the most top 10 picks with 7. Miami has 5. Behind Miami is USC and FSU (each with 4), Penn State, Auburn, NC State and Ohio State (all with 3).
• Texas has the most top 5 picks with 5 (Vince Young, Cedric Benson, Leonard Davis, Mike Williams and Quentin Jammer). Penn State has 3 (Levi Brown, Courtney Brown, Lavar Arrington) - two of those were from the 2000 draft. Auburn (Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown - both RB's picked back to back in 2005), USC (Carson Pamer and Reggie Bush), NC State (Mario Williams and Philip Rivers) and Miami (Andre Johnson and Sean Taylor) each have 2.
• Texas can get players to the next level, but they don't necessarily succeed - especially the offensive linemen. Leonard Davis and Mike Williams have both been released by their original teams. Vince Young is a star in waiting. Quentin Jammer is a starter in SD, but many feel he is overrated. The jury is still out on Benson, but early results aren't promising.
• Two of the three Penn State players didn't really live up to their draft status. Courtney Brown was a dud and is currently without a team (to my knowledge). LaVarr Arrington managed a couple of good years, but nothing worthy of his draft status. Levi Brown is a rookie in 2007.
• USC's and Miami's top five picks appear to be stars
• NC State's top 5 picks are from the last three years.
• It's difficult to get a read on Auburn's players......both are looking iffy right now, even though their each a starting RB on their respective teams.
• The list of teams with multiple first rounders has very few teams outside of the top conference (excluding ND) in the country. No team outside of the major conferences has had more than 2 first round picks. Fresno State, Marshall, Utah, UAB, Tulane, and Jackson State each had 2 first round picks in this time period. Fresno State (David Carr) and Utah (Alex Smith) each had a player picked number 1 overall during this time period.
• Fresno State had the 1st pick of the 1st round in 2003 (Carr) and the last pick of the first round in 2005 (Mankins)
• Both of Tulane's first round picks were QB's taken in the second half of the first round. JP Losman was selected 22nd in 2004 and Patrick Ramsey was the last pick of the 1st round in 2002.
• Both of Marshall's first round picks since 2000 have been QB's. Chad Pennington was selected 18th in 2000 by the Jets. Byron Leftwich was selected 7th by the Jags in 2003.
• Both of Utah's 1st round picks came in the top 10. Jordan Gross was the Panther first pick in 2003 at number 8. The 49ers took Smith number 1 in 2005.
• Utah is the only school outside of the major conferences to have multiple top 10 picks. No school outside of the major conferences has had multiple top 5 picks.
• Only TCU (Ladanian Tomlinson), Utah and Fresno State have had any top 5 pick while being outside of the major conferences.
• Notre Dame has had two first round picks since 2000 - Brady Quinn (no. 22 in 2007) and Jeff Faine (No 21 in 2003). Both were selected by the Browns.
• The SEC has had the most first round picks since 2000 with 69. Followed by the Big 10 (48), ACC (45), PAC 10 (31) and Big 12 (30). Based on the conference to which each school belongs in 2007 (many of the ACC's picks would actually belong to the Big East)
• The Big East has only had 8 first round picks since 2000. However, many of the first round picks that are attributed to the ACC were for teams that were in the Big East at the time (Virginia Tech, Miami, and BC).
• The SEC has had the most top 10 picks with 23. Followed by the ACC (15), the Big 10 and Big 12 (12 each) and the PAC 10 with 9. The Mountain West had 4 - Smith and Gross from Utah, Urlacher from New Mexico and LT from TCU.
• The list for conferences with most top 5 picks is as follows: SEC (11), Big 10 (8), ACC and Big 12(7 each).
• The PAC 10 only has three - 2 Heisman Trophy winners from USC (Palmer and Bush) and Joey Harrington from Oregon.
• The Big East only has 3 top 10 picks (Pacman Jones from WVU, Amobi Okoye from Louisville, and Larry Fitgerald) and one top 5 (Fitzgerald). Again, many of the Miami, Va Tech and BC players were in the Big East at the time they were picked. But these numbers don't bode well for the current schools in the Big East.
• The WAC has only had one top 5 (or top 10) player, but it was the number 1 pick from the 2003 draft, David Carr.
• Miami has had 4 Tight Ends drafted in the first round since 2000. No other school has had more than 1.
• Miami was either 1st or 2nd in every position except quarterback and kicker. Sebastian Janikowski was the only kicker drafted in the first round during this time period.
• Defensive Linemen were, by far, the most frequest first rounders (60 players taken). The totals by position were: D-Line (60); DB (45); WR (37); O-Line (30); RB (24); LB (23); QB (21); TE (13); Kicker (1)
• The fact there were 21 QB's taken in the first round indicates that, basically, 2 out of every 3 teams have entered a draft since 2000 in search of a franchise qb.

Who needs Byron?

I appear to be the only one, but I think that Jack Del Rio gave up on Byron Leftwich much too soon. I think there are several teams in the league that would immediately become better by adding Leftwich. By the way, am I the only one who finds it extremely coinciental that Leftwich and Gerrard have battled it out in Jax after their classic 64-61 overtime thriller in college (a game in which Leftwich thoroughly outplayed Gerrard). The following are some teams that should (but probably won't) sign Leftwich.

1. Kansas City - They say if you have two quarterbacks you don't have any quarterbacks. What do they say if you don't have any quarterbacks to begin with? Damon Huard is a lifetime back-up and Brodie Croyle fell to the 2nd round for a reason. He wouldn't have many pass catchers to work with, but I think Leftwich would be the best qb in KC if they signed him.
2. Oakland - This is just a thought, but what if the Raiders traded Russell for a future number 1 and signed Leftwich. That way they could have a competition between two rocket armed qb's and let the best man win. I'm pretty confident that either Culpepper or Leftwich has plenty of life left. Additionally, Leftwich fits the Raiders scheme. An immobile missile launcher.
3. Dallas - I'm not sold (yet) on Tony Romo. If the price is right, why not sign Leftwich to a short contract in case Romo fails.
4. Detroit - I think the Jon Kitna experiment is a bit of an ego think on the part of Mike Martz. He got an undrafted journeyman to throw for over 4000 yards. If he can take it to the next level (playoffs?) with Kitna at QB, that only adds to the Martz as Mad Scientist legend. Think about it, an offensive coordinator that not only gets some all-time great years from Kurt Warner - an undrafted free agent who nobody had heard of - but he repeats the feat with a QB that nobody else would have started. But, lets put Martz's ego aside and picture what happens if you upgrade the position with Leftwich. You have an outstanding receiving corp and a decent offense all around, and you just upgraded the most important position......I think it would make the Lions contenders in the NFC North.
5. Jacksonville - Sorry....I had to throw this one in there. I'm not here to be a yahoo criticizing coaches. But, I think Jack Del Rio is in over his head in Jacksonville. I'm not sure what ever made him qualified to be a head coach to begin with.......but this move seals the deal in my mind. He's not qualified to be a head coach in the nfl.
6. Baltimore - Steve McNair is really old and they're not re-signing Boller.

One more thing.....making this list has made me realize how many teams are "set for now" at QB. In the last 5 years, Buffalo, Cincinnatti, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville, San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Washington (twice), the Giants, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, San Francisco and Arizona have all taken QB's in the first round of a draft. Many of those players have already been released. Regardless, that's 18 out of 32 teams that have tried to shore up the game's most important position in the first round. They're not all gonna work out. But that doesn't leave much of a market for a player, like Leftwich, who's looking for a team to lead.

Which colleges really produce the best NFL QB's

When you think of the storied programs of college football, you think of Michigan, Notre Dame, USC etc... So, logic would tell you that they would produce the most NFL talent and, therefore, the most NFL quarterbacks. But, every year I watch the draft and hear the names of qb's called from some less traditional schools (Oregon, Cal, Fresno State), so I decided to put the so called logic to the test.

I went and looked at which college current nfl qb's attended. I included any qb on the depth charts of footballguys.com as of 8/28/2007 - some have since been released.

What did we find:

No one school jumped out immediately. 10 schools had 3 quarterbacks in the NFL. Those were Washington, USC, Tulane, Oregon, Michigan, Miami, Marshall, Fresno State, Florida, and Boston Colllege. That's a pretty eclectic list. That's 3 PAC 10 schools, 2 Conference USA schools, and 2 ACC schools. The other 3 are from the Big 10, WAC, and SEC.

14 schools had 2 qb's. Those were Wisconsin, Cal, Akron, Utah, Texas, Purdue, Oregon State, Miami of Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Iowa State, Indiana, Florida A & M, Florida State and Georgia.

If we break this down by conference, the PAC-10 leads the way with 15. Followed by the SEC (13), Big-10 (12), the WAC and Conference USA each with 11. The Big 12 only has 6; one less than the Big East and MAC and 3 less than the acc.

The numbers for starters are even more scattered. Only one school, USC, has multiple current starters in the NFL. Those are Heisman trophy winners Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer. (Marshall had 2 until Byron Leftwich's demotion and release) 30 schools have one starter in the nfl. The SEC had the most starters with 6. Followed by the PAC-10 (4), ACC, Conference USA, and Big 10 (all with 3). The Big East has 2 - that's the same amount as the MAC, WAC, and SWAC.

There are two conclusions I would draw from this information.

1) USC produces the most NFL qb's. I don't know where John David Booty projects in the NFL draft, but if we assume he'll be an NFL starter in the next three years, USC would have 3 starters while no other team (outside of maybe Michigan with, potentially, Henne and Brady) having more than 1.

2) QB's probably choose schools where they'll have an opportunity to play. Jay Cutler was obviously good enough to play at Florida or Georgia....but he chose Vanderbilt. I don't know why he did that - it may have been for academic reasons - but I would guess that the opportunity to get extensive playing time (in what amounts to an NFL audition) factored into his decision.

Some other notes:

• The top 6 schools in the current (as of 9/2) AP poll have a starter (or, in one case, soon to be starter) in the NFL. USC (Leinart, Palmer), LSU (JaMarcus Russell - not yet a starter), West Virginia (Bulger), Texas (V Young) and Michigan (Brady)


• The only school in the current top 10 with zero qb's in the NFL is Oklahoma (No. 9 Virginia Tech has only the suspended Michael Vick). Louisville has only Chris Redman who is on the Falcons for now....but is not assured of a spot.


• Of the Top 25, 8 schools (Oklahoma, UCLA, Rutgers, Nebraska, Arkansas, TCU, Hawaii, Texas A & M) don't have a quarterback in the nfl.
• Notre Dame only has one QB in the NFL - Brady Quinn. Steve Buerlein was the last serviceable NFL QB from Notre Dame - playing 15 seasons for 6 teams and throwing for a league leading 4,436 yards and 36 TDs in 1999. Rick Mirer flames out as the number 2 pick in the draft and Ron Powlus never materialized into an NFL level college player.
• The last 15 Super Bowls have been won by QB's from Michigan (3 - Tom Brady), UCLA (3 Troy Aikman), Stanford (2 John Elway), Tennessee (2006 Peyton Manning), Miami-Ohio (2005 Ben Rothlesberger), Florida State (2002 Brad Johnson), Fresno State (2000 Trent Dilfer), Northern Iowa (1999 Kurt Warner), Southern Miss (1996 Brett Favre) and BYU (1994 Steve Young).
• No college has had multiple different QB's win the Super Bowl in the last 15 years
• Of the last 15 Heisman Trophy winners, 9 have been quarterbacks. Only Carson Palmer has gone on to NFL greatness. The jury is still out on Matt Leinart (a starter in AZ) and Troy Smith (who barely made the Ravens). Chris Weinke and Danny Wuerffel managed to stick areound the NFL for awhile - albeit with unspactular production and usually as back-ups. Jason White, Eric Crouch, Charlie Ward, and Gino Torretta had little or no NFL career. In fairness, Charlie Ward did not even try - becoming the point guard of the NY Knicks instead.
• If you look at Heisman winners all the way back to 1970, only Palmer has really become a star. Testaverde, Flutie, and Jim Plunkett had decent careers. Pat Sullivan, Andre Ware, and Ty Detmer made little impact in the NFL.

The following contains:

1. A sorted List of number of qb's by college


2. A sorted list of number of starters by college


3. A sorted list of number of qb's by conference


4. A sorted list of number of starters by conference


5. Every NFL qb and their college
   
   

Thanks to footballguys.com

1. A sorted List of number of qb's by college

School QB's

Washington 3
USC 3
Tulane 3
Oregon 3
Michigan 3
Miami 3
Marshall 3
Fresno State 3
Florida 3
Boston College 3
Wisconsin 2
Cal 2
Akron 2
Utah 2
Texas 2
Purdue 2
Oregon State 2
Miami of Ohio 2
Louisiana Tech 2
Iowa State 2
Indiana 2
Florida A & M 2
Florida State 2
Georgia 2
Wyoming 1
Georgetown 1
Grambling 1
Harvard 1
Houston 1
Idaho State 1
Boise State 1
BYU 1
Kentucky 1
Louisiana - Lafayette 1
Eastern Michigan 1
Louisville 1
LSU 1
Auburn 1
Arkansas State 1
Eastern Illinois 1
Arizona State 1
Michigan State 1
Middle Tennessee State 1
Mississippi 1
NC State 1
Nevada 1
Norther Iowa 1
Northern Illinois 1
Northwestern 1
Northwestern State - Louisiana 1
Notre Dame 1
Ohio State 1
Oklahoma 1
Alcorn State 1
East Carolina 1
Penn State 1
Pitt 1
Princeton 1
Connecticut 1
Sam Houston State 1
San Jose State 1
South Carolina 1
Southern Miss 1
Stanford 1
Syracuse 1
Tarleton State 1
Tennessee 1
Coastal Carolina 1
Toledo 1
Alabama State 1
Tulsa 1
UAB 1
Alabama 1
Clemson 1
UTEP 1
Vanderbilt 1
Virginia 1
Virginia Tech 1
Central Washington 1
Weber State 1
West Virginia 1
William and Mary 1
Central Florida 1

2. A sorted list of number of starters by college

School Starting QB's
USC 2
West Virginia 1
Alabama State 1
Alcorn State 1
Auburn 1
Boston College 1
Central Washington 1
East Carolina 1
Eastern Illinois 1
Florida 1
Indiana 1
Louisiana - Lafayette 1
LSU 1
Marshall 1
Miami of Ohio 1
Michigan 1
Mississippi 1
NC State 1
Oregon 1
Purdue 1
San Jose State 1
Southern Miss 1
Syracuse 1
Tennessee 1
Texas 1
Tulane 1
Akron 1
Utah 1
Vanderbilt 1
Virginia 1
Washington 1

3. A sorted list of number of qb's by conference
Conference Total QB's
Pac-10 15
SEC 13
Big-10 12
WAC 11
C-USA 11
acc 9
Big East 7
MAC 7
Big 12 6
SWAC 3
Sun Belt 3
MEAC 3
Ivy 2
Big Sky 2
Southland 2
Moutain West 2
Patriot 2
Great Northwest 1
A-10 1
Red River 1
Big South 1
Ohio Valley 1
Missouri Valley 1
Independent 1

4. A sorted list of number of starters by conference

Conference Starters

SEC 6
Pac-10 4
acc 3
C-USA 3
Big-10 3
WAC 2
SWAC 2
MAC 2
Big East 2
Great Northwest 1
Big 12 1
Ohio Valley 1
Sun Belt 1
Moutain West 1

5. Every NFL qb and their college
Tom Brady - Michigan
Matt Cassell - USC
Matt Gutierrez - Idaho State
Testaverde - Miami
JP Losman - Tulane
Craig Nall - Northwestern State - Louisiana
Trent Edwards - Stanford
Chad Pennington - Marshall
Kellen Clements - Oregon
Marques Tuiasasopo - Washington
Brett Ratliffe - Utah
Trent Green - Indiana
Cleo Lemon - Arkansas State
John Beck - BYU
Carson Palmer - USC
Doug Johnson - Florida
Jeff Rowe - Nevada
Jeff Smith - Georgetown
Ben Rothlesberger - Miami of Ohio
Charlie Batch - Eastern Michigan
Brian St. Pierre - Boston College
Charlie Frye - Akron
Derek Anderson - Oregon State
Brady Quinn - Notre Dame
Ken Dorsey - Miami
Steve McNair - Alcorn State
Kyle Boller - Cal
Troy Smith - Ohio State
Peyton Manning - Tennessee
Jim Sorgi - Wisconsin
Josh Betts - Miami of Ohio
Byron Leftwich - Marshall
David Gerrard - East Carolina
Quinn Gray - Florida A & M
Matt Schaub - Virginia
Sage Rosenfels - Iowa State
Jared Zabransky - Boise State
Kerry Collins - Penn State
Vince Young - Texas
Tim Rattay - Louisiana Tech
Brody Croyle - Alabama
Damon Huard - Washington
Jeff Terrell - Princeton
Casey Printers - Florida A & M
Jay Cutler - Vanderbilt
Patrick Ramsey - Tulane
Preston Parsons - Northern Illinois
Darrel Hackney - UAB
JaMarcus Russell - LSU
Andrew Walter - Arizona State
Josh McCown - Sam Houston State
Daunte Culpepper - Central Florida
Phillip Rivers - NC State
Billy Volek - Fresno State
Charlie Whitehurst - Clemson
Tony Romo - Eastern Illinois
Brad Johnson - Florida State
Richard Bartel - Tarleton State
Matt Moore - Oregon State
Jason Campbell - Auburn
Gibran Hamdan - Indiana
Mark Brunell - Washington
Jordan Palmer - UTEP
Todd Collins - Michigan
Eli Manning - Mississippi
Tim Hasselbeck - Boston College
Anthony Wright - South Carolina
Jared Lorenzen - Kentucky
Donovan McNabb - Syracuse
Kevin Kolb - Houston
AJ Feeley - Oregon
Jon Kitna - Central Washington
Dan Orlovsky - Connecticut
Drew Stanton - Michigan State
Rex Grossman - Florida
Brian Griese - Michigan
Kyle Orton - Purdue
Chris Leak - Florida
Tavaris Jackson - Alabama State
Brooks Bollinger - Wisconsin
Kelly Holcombe - Middle Tennessee State
tyler Thigpen - Coastal Carolina
Brett Favre - Southern Miss
Aaron Rogers - Cal
Paul Thompson - Oklahoma
Drew Brees - Purdue
Jaime Martin - Weber State
Tyler Palco - Pitt
Jake Delhomme - Louisiana - Lafayette
David Carr - Fresno State
Chris Weinke - Florida State
Brett Basanez - Northwestern
Michael Vick - Virginia Tech
Joey Harrington - Oregon
Chris Redman - Louisville
DJ Shockley - Georgia
Casey Bramlet - Wyoming
Chris Simms - Texas
Jeff Garcia - San Jose State
Luke McCown - Louisiana Tech
Marc Bulger - West Virginia
Bruce Gradkowski - Toledo
Bruce Eugene - Grambling
Gus Frerotte - Tulsa
Ryan Fitzgerald - Harvard
Brock Berlin - Miami
Alex Smith - Utah
Trent Dilfer - Fresno State
Luke Getsy - Akron
Shaun Hill - Tulane
Matt Leinart - USC
Kurt Warner - Norther Iowa
Lang Campbell - William and Mary
Matt Hasselback - Boston College
Seneca Wallace - Iowa State
David Greene - Georgia
David Devine - Marshall

5 diciest qb situations

I thought I would start my blog by generating a list of the 5 most tenuous qb situations in the nfl.

1) Minnesota - Travaris Jackson? I have a theory about picking franchise qb's in the draft. Many people say that first round qb's have a high failure rate. While this may be true, I can't remember the last time I saw a "franchise qb" picked outside of the first round pan out as a top flight qb. What I'm referring to is a quarterback that a team picks in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th round etc. with the intention of turning them into their starting qb in the near future. Recent years' examples include Kellen Clements, John Beck, and Kevin Kolb. While the jury's still out on them, one only needs look at similar situations in recent years. Charlie Frye was chosen in the fourth round, but the Browns were shocked when he played like a......fourth.....rounder. Some examples that have not panned out include Chris Redman, Chris Simms, Josh McCown, Patrick Ramsey (actually, the last pick in the first round), Quincy Carter, Chris Weinke, Giovanni Carmazzi....the list goes on.
I'm not trying to say that qb's after the first round never pan out, b/c we know that's not true (Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme, Matt Hasselbeck). I'm saying that trying to guess which quarterback after the first round is going to lead you to the promise land is a risky proposition. Let's face it, the Pats backed into Brady. Delhomme and Hasselbeck were fliers taken by their original teams - the Saints and the Packers - each of whom had an entrenched starting qb. Drew Brees is a bit of an exception but a) he was the first pick of the 2nd round and b) he was enough of a failure in his first two years that the team, right or wrong, could not pass on Phillip Rivers when they had a chance. Teams are better off taking later round fliers without the expectation that any specific one will be the franchise qb (a la Tom Brady).
My opinion is that Jackson falls into the category of the 2nd round qb who is expected to be the savior. Never works and I think he will fail. Brooks Bollinger isn't much better and, should they trade for him, Kelly Holcomb could work out to be the best of a sad bunch.

2) Cleveland - Charlie Frye falls into the category described above - later round qb expected to be a franchise qb. And, as I described above, he has failed. All indications are that he's, at best, even with Derek Anderson in the competition for the starting job. Anderson, by the way, falls under the category of later round flier.
Brady Quinn fell in the draft for a reason. Maybe he's the next Tom Brady or Joe Montana, but, until he does something, he's no more than a late first round qb. I don't have statistics on the success of late first round qb's, but I don't think it's great. And it definitely does not bode well for 2007.

3) Oakland - I actually don't think Oakland is in awful shape long-term. They have the top pick (although unsigned) in the 2007 draft in JaMarcus Russell. They took a gamble with some very solid upside on Culpepper. And they have Andrew Walter as their number 3. Best case scenario. Culpepper comes in and plays well for this season - he has a chip on his shoulder and a one year contract. Russell learns under Culpepper and steps in as the starter next year. Walter proves he's not as bad as he looked last year (my personal opinion - that line was hideous).

So why is Oakland on this list? Because of the worst case scenario for 2007. (Long term I think they're ok). Russell is a rookie and rookie qb's (outside of Dan M) never do anything good. Culpepper has not looked good since his knee injury. And, Walter may not be any better than he looked last year.

4) Kansas City - Brodie Croyle. Franchise QB picked in the 2nd round. Enough said. And Damon Huard is a lifetime back-up who looked ok last year. My guess is that KC will have a couple of dismal years and be in the running for a QB as a top 3 pick.


5) Miami - Trent Green got his bell rung last year and did not look the same when he came back. John Beck is a second rounder who, even if my theory about non-first round franchise qb's is incorrect, is at least 2 years away. Cleo Lemon hasn't proven anything at this level. Miami is another team that will be in the market for a qb very soon.



Almost made the list:
Detroit - Can you count on Kitna/Orlovski to lead this team?
Jacksonville - I like Leftwich, but if he doesn't pan out this year, they'll be on the market.
Houston - I may the only person that thinks they moved sideways in the Schaub trade.

First Post

I haven't completely determined what my blog will be about. I'm thinking sports.....but that's not written in stone. Anyway, once I decide, I'll start blogging.